In both scenarios, temperatures rise, but in one case precipitation increases only moderately, while in the other the weather becomes distinctly warm and wet, with milder winters.
What does this mean for hikers in 2050?
- Shorter winters: A permanent snow cover of over 20 cm will arrive a few weeks later, occasionally after New Year or as late as February. Winter will be about a month shorter on average.
- Longer hiking season on bare ground: The thermal growing season (when the daily mean temperature stays above +5 °C) will start 1–2 weeks earlier and last longer. An earlier spring and later winter could mean more weeks for hiking on bare ground.
- More challenging conditions: Delayed thermal winter and winter rain can make trail maintenance harder. Freeze–thaw days will increase, adding slipperiness.
- Stress on structures: Increased humidity may weaken shelters, boardwalks and rest areas. More runoff will erode trails.
- Heatwaves: Stronger heat can challenge hikers’ endurance and increase rescue operations. Drought may reduce the quantity or quality of drinking water.
Nature is changing – but hiking can continue
Climate change does not mean the end of hiking, but a need for adaptation. Metsähallitus Parks & Wildlife is currently developing the concept of a climate-smart rest area.